Abstract:China’s booming electric vehicle (EV) sector is generating a rapidly growing stream of retired batteries, most of which still enter pollution-intensive informal recycling channels. How to redirect these batteries into formal recycling remains unclear, particularly given the complex and dynamic interactions among governments, producers, consumers, and informal recyclers. Here, we develop an integrated framework combining evolutionary game theory, system dynamics (SD), Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)-based stock-flow projections, and life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) to capture stakeholders’ co-evolution under expanded extended producer responsibility (EPR) policies. Under business as usual, formal recycling stagnates at around 53% after 2030. By contrast, a consolidated EPR strategy—combining early enforcement, targeted incentives, and stronger market conditions—could raise the formal recycling share above 92% by 2060 while reducing environmental damage by 44%–73%. These findings highlight the urgency of strengthening EPR systems, repositioning informal recyclers as flexible collectors, and aligning with stricter international regulations to build a robust formal recycling system.

🔗链接：https://doi.org/10.1016/ji.oneear.2026. 101701