Abstract:Ensuring a reliable and sustainable supply of critical metals for electric vehicle (EV) batteries through their recycling (i.e., metal security) is a pivotal means of achieving a low-carbon transportation transition in China. However, there is a lack of comprehensive studies that consider recycling stakeholder behavioral feedbacks on the trade-offs between echelon utilization and metal recycling of decommissioned EV batteries, i.e., the impact of stakeholder strategy choices on metal security has not been thoroughly modeled. Here, we establish a three-layer dynamic model involving game theory, system dynamics, Global Change Analysis Model, and dynamic material flow analysis to assess the impact of multi-level utilization of decommissioned EV batteries on metal circularity and its implications for metal security in China. The results show that with the support of subsidy and technology advancement, the probability of decommissioned EV batteries being subjected to multi-level utilization can reach 76 % by 2060. This can maintain the primary demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel to remain at 90, 57, and 386 kt/yr, respectively, which is 18 %, 36 %, and 33 % higher than the business-as-usual scenario (without extra supporting of multilevel utilization). Notably, these demands are 15, 56, and 6 times greater than China's domestic metal annual production. The encouraging evidence is that the echelon utilized batteries could cover more than 40 % of the cumulative demand for these critical metals in the battery storage sector. The findings could provide theoretical support for establishing global sustainable metal sourcing and a strong domestic metal circular economy, contributing to metal security during fleet electrification and sustainable development aligned with a climate-safe future.

🔗链接：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.est.2025.118625